International armed conflict between India and Pakistan

Historical Background

Origins

India and Pakistan’s long-standing tensions are rooted in the disputed Kashmir region, parts of which (Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley) were also claimed by China. Following the partition of British India in August 1947, the Muslim-majority Kashmir region was expected to decide whether to join India or Pakistan. The then Hindu ruler, Hari Singh, initially sought independence and delayed the decision, amid limited support for the notion among the Muslim-majority population.

Evolution of the dispute

In late October 1947, Pakistan advanced into Kashmir and seized several towns. India agreed to assist Singh on the condition that he sign the Instrument of Accession, which temporarily transferred the Kashmir region to India, which occurred on 26 October 1947. This triggered the first Indo-Pakistani war over Kashmir, which was followed by further conflicts between the two States.

Territorial configuration and claims

Kashmir remains divided by a ceasefire line established in 1949 and renamed the Line of Control (LoC) under the 1972 Simla Agreement, which also committed both States to peaceful settlement of the dispute and to refraining from unilateral changes. India controls a substantial portion of the region, referred to in India as ‘Jammu and Kashmir’, and Pakistan controls the remainder, while China gained control over Aksai Chin from India in 1962 and received Shaksgam Valley from Pakistan in 1963. India has asserted sovereignty over all of Kashmir on the basis on the contested 1947 Instrument of Accession and has argued that participation in state-level and national elections in Indian-controlled Kashmir evidences the area’s acquiescence to, and acceptance of, Indian control. Pakistan has framed the dispute in self-determination terms and has called for a referendum on the issue. In 2019, India removed Jammu and Kashmir’s special autonomous status and split the territory into two union territories, reinforcing federal control over the region. As nuclear powers, there have periodically been significant escalation risks, despite a 2003 ceasefire and its reaffirmation in 2021.

Key Developments (2023–2025)

During the reporting period, the situation saw several major developments:

1. Indian Supreme Court Decision on the 2019 Revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s Autonomy: After the 2019 revocation of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, which granted autonomy to India-controlled Kashmir, and the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories, India’s Supreme Court upheld the measures in December 2023. It characterized the former special status as temporary and linked to wartime conditions. Fearing public backlash, India also deployed thousands of troops and implemented a telecommunications and media blackout in the area. Pakistan rejected the ruling as disregarding the international dimension of the Kashmir dispute and sought United Nations (UN) Security Council engagement, while India argued that the move did not alter the LoC.

2. Border Skirmishes along the LoC: Despite the 2003 ceasefire and its reaffirmation, the reporting period saw recurring exchanges of fire and competing allegations of unprovoked attacks along the LoC in Kashmir. Incidents included shelling, killings linked to infiltration claims, drone incursions, machine-gun and sniper fire, and use improvised explosive devices (IED), despite efforts by the militaries on both sides to contain escalation.

3. Attack in Pahalgam: A mass shooting of tourists near Pahalgam in Indian-controlled Kashmir in April 2025 killed and injured dozens of Hindu men and intensified bilateral tensions. Attribution remained contested, and India pursued extensive counterterrorism measures, including increased surveillance, large-scale detentions, and demolitions, amid allegations of torture and ill-treatment. India also linked the attack to Pakistan-based actors and adopted punitive diplomatic measures, while Pakistan denied any involvement and responded with similar steps. Subsequent Indian operations reportedly killed suspected attackers, and additional individuals and entities related to Lashkar-e-Taibi were later indicted.

4. Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty: India suspended participation in the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, prompting Pakistan to frame the move as an act of war and to emphasize water as a ‘red line’ given that most of Pakistan’s population relies on Indus Basin for food, energy, and economic security. Following an arbitral award from Permanent Court of Arbitration, which among other findings found that India shall ‘let flow’ the waters for Pakistan’s unrestricted, Pakistan urged restoration while India rejected the tribunal’s competence.

5. Acrimonious Rhetoric Between India and Pakistan: Both States repeatedly traded allegations of terrorism and illegal occupation, with periodic threats of cross-border action and warnings of decisive retaliation in a nuclearized environment.