Historical Background
Origins and context
Kenya is an East African coastal State on the Indian Ocean, bordering South Sudan and Ethiopia to the north, Somalia to the north-east, Uganda to the west, and Tanzania to the south. The non-international armed conflict (NIAC) in Somalia between the Somali Armed Forces and Al-Shabaab, a formal Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, has extended into Kenya.
Cross-border dynamics and Kenyan military engagement
Following an increase in Al-Shabaab activity on Kenyan territory, Kenya closed its border with Somalia in October 2011 and deployed the Kenyan Armed Forces under Operation Linda Nchi to the southern Somalia border. Kenya later integrated its forces into the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and continued operations under its successor missions, including support to Somalia through the current African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
Al-Shabaab activity in Kenya
The first reported Al-Shabaab incident in Kenya occurred in 2008. After Kenya’s 2011 deployment, Al-Shabaab intensified operations in Kenya’s north-east, framing its actions as a response to Kenya’s support for Somalia. Major attacks included the 2013 Westgate Mall assault in Nairobi and the Garissa University attack. Reported Al-Shabaab activity in Kenya had further escalated by 2024.
Key Developments (2023–2025)
The reporting period saw several major developments:
- Intercommunal crisis: Intercommunal violence persisted, often driven by competition over grazing land and water in a context where livestock livelihoods are widespread and climate pressures aggravate resource scarcity. Intercommunal violence hotspots include the North Rift and several northern counties, with additional triggers linked to access to firearms and political incitement.
- Political protests: Protests repeatedly accompanied contested fiscal measures, with violent unrest reported in 2023 and again in June and July 2024 in Gen Z-led mobilization marked by extensive social media use and allegations of arrests and police violence. Separate peaceful protests addressed femicide during 2024, alongside concerns about enforced disappearances that the government dismissed. Further protests followed the death in custody of blogger Albert Ojwang after his arrest in June 2025.
- Security–related developments: A court ordered compensation for victims of the 2015 Garissa University attack, finding the authorities had ignored intelligence and failed to take preventive measures. The reconfiguration of AMISOM into African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) was authorized by UN Security Council resolution and advanced through four defined phases, including handovers of forward operating bases and successive drawdowns. Phase three has been completed by mid-November 2024. The process has been associated with concerns about a security vacuum and an intensification of insecurity along the Kenya-Somalia border, with recorded increases in terror-related incidents and reports of attacks affecting civilians, security officials, and hospitals. Kenya also volunteered to lead a multinational support mission to Haiti authorized by the UN Security Council, with the first Kenyan police contingent deploying in June 2024. Separately, USAID funding cuts reduced food rations and medical staffing in camps hosting refugees from multiple regional conflicts.
- Islamic State Somalia (ISS) activity: Islamic State Somalia (ISS) emerged in 2015 as a splinter of Al-Shabaab and developed regional offices in Somalia intended to coordinate activities across eastern, central, and southern Africa. Reports indicated only a limited footprint in Kenya without a territorial stronghold, with activity described as largely involving failed attacks, recruitment, and facilitation, and with arrests reported in late 2024. During the period, there was little evidence of armed clashes between ISS affiliates and Kenyan security forces. Kenya participates in the global coalition against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Non-International Armed Conflict
Kenya vs Al-Shabaab
Kenya has been significantly affected by Al-Shabaab’s external operations, which intensified after 2011 as the group expanded beyond Somalia and consolidated a transnational presence in East Africa, with Kenya as its main focus for cross-border attacks. Throughout the reporting period, violence remained high, with recurrent clashes between Kenyan forces and Al-Shabaab reported almost monthly and indications of increasing severity. Available reporting points to repeated attacks employing military grade weapons, frequent use of improvised explosive devices (IED) for ambushes, and the adaptation of commercially available drones into platforms carrying explosive devices, prompting Kenyan authorities to begin upgrading the equipment of their own forces. Displacement, including attributed to the ongoing conflict, has increased over time, with movements recorded in border counties and broader national figures reaching the tens of thousands. Taken together, these patterns satisfy the intensity element for a NIAC. Al-Shabaab’s hierarchical and centralized structure, defined leadership with central leaders and regional commanders, specialized military, intelligence and security components, organized financing, substantial resources, large manpower, extensive territorial control in Somalia, and structured training indicate that Al-Shabaab remains sufficiently organized under IHL. As a result, the pre-existing NIAC has continued during the period.
The current NIAC in Kenya does not, however, satisfy the particular requirement in Article 1(1) of Additional Protocol I that the group exercise a level of territorial control that would enable it to sustain military operations. Kenya has been a State Party since 1999.
Parties to the Conflict
State Parties
- Kenya
Non-State Parties
- Al-Shabaab