Non-international armed conflicts in Pakistan

Historical Background

Origins and context

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan’s governance has alternated between civilian and military rule, with influential provincial leadership and shifting alliances. Political instability has been intensified by separatist and Islamist movements, prominently Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), alongside a long running Baluchistan insurgency and recurrent attacks by other Islamist armed groups in both tribal areas and major cities.

Baluchistan’s separatist aspirations

Baluch grievances over marginalization and resource control trace back to the accession of Kalat in 1948 and successive phases of unrest, with the current phase beginning in the early 2000s and involving sustained violence and displacement. The Baloch insurgency, notably the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), expanded attacks on State infrastructure and security forces, later targeting Chinese nationals and projects linked to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and disrupting elections. Internal splits and reconfigurations produced rival factions and coalitions, including the Baloch Raaji Aajohi Sangar (BRAS) alliance, alongside a growing regional dimension involving Iran and cross-border safe haven allegations.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emergence and evolution

Formed in 2007 after earlier Pakistani counterinsurgency operations, the TTP expanded territorial influence and attacks, then weakened after leadership losses, internal fragmentation, and intensive operations from 2014. From 2018 it became more cohesive, centralizing authority and reintegrating splinter and allied groups, and shifting towards the targeting of State and military institutions. A marked rise in operational tempo occurred after 2020 with further empowerment following the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Other jihadist actors

Al Qaeda’s role in Pakistan has fluctuated since 2002, adapting through local networks and affiliates, while Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) rose from 2015 before being reduced by sustained operations, later regrouping after the Afghanistan withdrawal and continuing to mount lethal attacks in Pakistan.

Key Developments (2023–2026)

The reporting period saw several major developments:

1. Escalation of terrorist attacks: Militant violence rose sharply across Pakistan, resulting in it being ranked as the country most affected by terrorism worldwide. Attacks were attributed primarily to the TTP and Baloch insurgent factions, with IS-K playing a more limited yet persistent role.
2. Baloch insurgency: The insurgency escalated through a high-profile hijacking of a passenger train in which hundreds were held for days and many hostages were killed. BRAS factions also coordinated repeated surges of attacks around symbolic dates, combining strikes on security forces with checkpoint activity and disruption of electoral processes. Chinese nationals and projects associated with the CPEC remained a prominent focus, including a lethal attack on a convoy, attribution for which was contested.
3. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: Operations increased in frequency, complexity and geographic reach, combining high-value targets in border areas with urban soft targets. Despite this expansion, the group has not secured sustained territorial control or broad local support, while violence against civilians associated with the Pakistani State rose.
4. The Pakistani State response: Planned nationwide offensive was announced but did not proceed, followed by the approval of a new operation and episodic local campaigns that remained limited without strengthened governance and a sustained ground presence to hold territory.
5. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s rapprochement and local expansion: Collaboration with other Islamist actors, alongside support from al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, facilitated cross-border capabilities, recruitment including Afghan nationals, and a footprint in additional provinces, while the group publicly framed its objectives as domestic.
6. Fragmentation and spill-over of the Baloch insurgency: Further splintering occurred within Baloch coalitions, alongside intensified activity in Iran, prompting reciprocal cross-border strikes and later coordination mechanisms and joint action along the border.
7. Open hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan: Disputes over safe haven for TTP escalated into cross-border airstrikes, a brief ceasefire, and renewed exchanges in early 2026.