International armed conflict between Moldova and the Russian Federation

Historical Background

Origins and context

Transdniestria (also called Transnistria) is a narrow strip of land within Moldova’s internationally recognized borders, situated between the Dniester River and Ukraine. While eastern Moldova, Bessarabia, is largely ethnic Romanian, Transdniestria’s population is predominantly Slavic. Tensions rose in 1989 when Moldova adopted a language law making Moldovan the official language instead of Russian.

Breakaway and escalation of violence

Transdniestria declared its breakaway on 2 September 1990 and formed the ‘Moldavian Republic of Transdniestra’ (MRT) without international recognition, amid clashes that had already begun in late 1990 between Moldovan forces and separatists. Fighting escalated in 1991 when Transnistrian paramilitaries seized Moldovan public institutions and Russian forces became involved. After Moldova’s independence on 27 August 1991, the Soviet Union’s Fourteenth Army remained in Transdniestria and joined the separatists’ conflict against Moldovan forces. Hostilities peaked in June 1992, killing almost one thousand and injuring thousands more.

Ceasefire arrangements and Russian presence

A July 1992 ceasefire established a Joint Control Commission and a Russian-led peacekeeping mission. Although Russia repeatedly committed to withdraw its forces, it has not done so, and the main negotiation format became defunct in 2022. Russian soldiers remained in Transdniestria throughout the reporting period.

Key Developments (2023-2025)

The reporting period saw several major developments:

1. Heightened security tension between Moldova and Russia: Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine international armed conflict (IAC), Moldovan authorities voiced concerns that Transdniestria could be leveraged to open an additional entry point into Ukraine. Moldova continued to accuse Russia of disinformation, false flag operations, and broader destabilization. Against this background, Moldovan authorities detained dozens of individuals suspected of acting on Russian instruction to interfere with elections. In 2025, Moldova adopted a long-term military strategy identifying Russia as the principal security concern, amid renewed suspicions of a Russian troop increase in Transdniestria, although no active build-up was observed along the relevant border sector by mid-December 2025.

2. Energy pressure and diplomatic measures: Following Ukraine’s blockage of Russian gas transit, Transdniestria stopped receiving Russian gas and, despite assessments that rerouting was possible, supplies were not maintained. The resulting energy shock severely affected the local economy, caused job losses, and sustained an economic emergency, while also being framed as potentially reshaping relations between Moldova and its separatist region. In March 2025, Moldova expelled Russian diplomats over alleged facilitation of a pro-Russian lawmaker’s escape to Transdniestria, an allegation which Russia denied.

3. European integration and elections: Moldova advanced its European Union (EU) accession track from application and candidate status to opening negotiations and completing screening in 2025. Elections were repeatedly accompanied by allegations of Russian interference, including fraud claims, cyberattacks, bomb alerts and sanctions against a pro-Russian organization, while the pro-European governing party secured a parliamentary majority. Transdniestria’s parliamentary elections recorded low turnout and produced a single party legislature, with detailed district results not disclosed.