United States-Venezuela relations shifted from partnership to confrontation after 1999, as Venezuela’s anti-imperialist stance, alliances with Cuba, China, Russia and Iran, and US sanctions and narco-trafficking accusations deepened tensions. In September 2025, the United States launched Operation Southern Spear, a maritime strike campaign against boats alleged to be linked to drug trafficking near Venezuela which the United States framed as a non-international armed conflict (NIAC) against drug cartels and an Article 51 self-defence operation. Venezuela denounced the campaign as unlawful and regime change driven. Under international humanitarian law (IHL), the strikes do not meet NIAC intensity and organization thresholds. A subsequent blockade of sanctioned oil tankers and an alleged Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) drone strike further escalated further the situation. Domestically, disqualification of opposition leader Machado and contested 2024 presidential elections triggered protests. US migration policy reversals, large-scale deportations, terrorism designations, and a regional military build-up accompanied escalation, culminating in Operation Absolute Resolve on 3 January 2026, the capture of President Maduro for trial, as well as his wife, and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader.
Classification(s) and Parties to the Conflict(s)
- International Armed Conflict between the United States and Venezuela (in early January 2026)
Operation Absolute Resolve, a complex air and ground campaign, primarily affected Venezuelan and allied military personnel, with limited reported civilian casualties and no indication of deliberate, indiscriminate or clearly disproportionate attacks on 3 January 2026. Conversely, if confirmed, the late December 2025 US strike on a port used for narcotics transport would constitute an unlawful attack on a civilian object, whereas a short-lived shutdown of the electrical grid would be unlikely to breach proportionality. President Maduro, as commander in chief of Venezuelan armed forces, is entitled to prisoner of war status under Geneva Convention III, which protects him from prosecution for acts of violence committed in a IAC that comply with IHL (combatant’s privilege). Violence and public curiosity are also prohibited while release and repatriation once active hostilities have ceased are required. Detained in relation to the IAC by a party to the conflict of which she is not a national, Ms Cilia Flores is a protected person under Geneva Convention IV and must be respected, humanely treated, able to challenge detention, and not punished for offences she has not personally committed.
Historical Background
Origins
United States-Venezuela relations evolved from early diplomatic ties into a close partnership through much of the twentieth century, including a period of significant oil interdependence. From 1999 onwards, relations deteriorated amid Venezuela’s anti-imperialist orientation following Hugo Chavez election and, under President Maduro, deeper links with Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran. Between 2019 and 2024, tensions further accumulated through United States (US) sanctions and accusations of narco-trafficking against Maduro.
Operation Southern Spear
In September 2025, the United States launched Operation Southern Spear, an intensified campaign of maritime strikes near Venezuela. Reporting over the subsequent months describes numerous attacks and substantial civilian loss of life. US statements framed the strikes as directed against narco-terrorists and Venezuela asserted that the campaign violated international law and pursued regime change rather than drug interdiction, with Maduro proposing direct talks and rejecting trafficking allegations.
Legal framing and escalation
US officials characterized the campaign as occurring within a NIAC against Caribbean drug cartels and as an operation conducted in self-defence under Article 51 of the United Nations (UN) Charter. In late 2025, the United States also imposed a blockade targeting sanctioned Venezuelan registered oil tankers, prompting international concern. In January 2026, Operation Absolute Resolve involved an US incursion into Caracas and the removal of President Maduro to the United States for trial, sharply deepening the interstate confrontation.
Key Developments (2023–2025)
The reporting period saw several major developments:
- Disqualification of main opposition leader Machado for presidential elections
Venezuela’s Comptroller General reaffirmed in June 2023 a long-term disqualification imposed on María Corina Machado in 2015, barring her from public office on grounds linked to her alleged support for US sanctions and for the interim presidency of Juan Guaidó. Despite winning the opposition primary in October 2023, she pursued judicial review before the Supreme Court, which upheld her ineligibility early 2024. The opposition ultimately fielded Edmundo González Urrutia as candidate in 2024.
- Venezuelan presidential elections in July 2024
The July 2024 elections were described as affected by irregularities and by the early removal of opposition actors from the process. The electoral authority declared Maduro the winner on partial counting, while the opposition asserted a decisive victory for González. The announcement triggered protests, with fatalities and mass detentions. The Carter Center reported it could not verify the outcome due to withheld information and withdrew for security reasons.
- President Trump revokes Temporary Protected Status and migration cooperation
After a late extension of Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans, the Trump administration rescinded it in January 2025 and a Supreme Court ruling enabled immediate effect in October 2025, amid continued large scale deportations. Late January 2025, Venezuela agreed to accept deportees in exchange for the return of detained US citizens, with periodic suspensions and resumptions as sanctions and third country transfers escalated.
- US terrorism designations, military buildup, and maritime strikes
In February 2025, the United States designated Tren de Aragua and later Cartel de los Soles as terrorist entities, prompting Venezuelan denial and contestation over the groups’ nature and links to the government. From August 2025, a wider US military buildup in the Caribbean coincided with Venezuelan mobilization measures and the launch of Plan Independence 200. From September to December 2025, under Operation Southern Spear, the United States carried out repeated lethal strikes on boats alleged to be linked to drug trafficking, including incidents raising allegations of extrajudicial killing and prompting reductions in allied intelligence sharing. Despite claims by the United States, Operation Southern Spear does not equate to a NIAC since the situation does not meet the intensity and organization thresholds.
- Closure of airspace, and seizure and blockade of oil tankers
Late November 2025, Trump declared closure of the airspace above Venezuela. US interdictions of sanctioned tankers, new sanctions, and a proclaimed “complete blockade” of sanctioned vessels in mid-December 2025 were met by Venezuelan accusations of piracy and illegality, alongside reported impacts on exports. Late December 2025, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) allegedly conducted drone strike on port facility on Venezuelan coast.
- Operation Absolute Resolve, Maduro indictment, and interim leadership
Following the US operation on 3 January 2026 that removed Maduro to face US charges (pronounced in March 2020), States issued divergent reactions ranging from condemnation to cautious calls to respect international law. Venezuela’s National Assembly installed Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader, while signalling openness to a cooperative agenda with the United States on 5 January 2026. When appearing in court, Maduro claimed that he was still the Venezuelan president and that he qualified for prisoner of war status.
International Armed Conflict
US vs Venezuela (in early January 2026)
The United States publicly denied being involved in an armed conflict with Venezuela, characterizing operations on Venezuelan territory, including Operation Absolute Resolve, as law enforcement action conducted with military support. Under IHL, however, the existence of an IAC is determined objectively on the basis of facts and does not depend on recognition by a party. An IAC arises when one State resorts to armed force against another, irrespective of motives or intensity. This was recognized by the Department of Justice in an explanatory memorandum.
On the facts presented, the resort to force may have occurred first through a strike on a Venezuelan docking facility in late December 2025, although reported dates diverge (18 or 23 December 2025), and if not, it would have been triggered on 3 January 2026 during Operation Absolute Resolve, which entailed a large-scale joint military operation in Venezuelan airspace and territory. At the time of reporting, there was no military occupation, with no US forces remaining physically present, Venezuelan authorities continued to exercise governmental functions, and effective control over territory was not established. Accordingly, the IAC was short-lived, with active hostilities ending the day after Maduro’s capture, and at the time of publishing, there was no IAC anymore and no belligerent occupation.
Parties to the Conflict
State Parties
- United States
- Venezuela
ATTACKS ON CIVILIANS
Customary IHL prohibits directing attacks against civilians and requires that attacks comply with principles of distinction, proportionality, and feasible precautions. Operation Absolute Resolve was described by the United States as a complex, multi-component operation involving large-scale air assets, helicopter insertion, and neutralization of air defences around Caracas. Reported and official figures differed somewhat, with statements by Venezuela indicating a death toll ranging from dozens to around one hundred (most Venezuelan and Cuban military personnel) and more than one hundred injured, including at least three civilians. Available information did not indicate any civilian targeting, or indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks affecting civilians during the 3 January 2026 operations.
ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Customary IHL restricts attacks to military objectives, and prohibits attacks on civilian objects. The United States (US) alleged drone strike against the port, if it occurred, would constitute an attack on a civilian object and amount to a serious IHL violation. Conversely, when US forces reportedly struck a limited number of sites on 3 January 2026, primarily the Fort Tiuna Military Complex where Nicolás Maduro had bunkers, it appears they attacked lawful military objectives.
Cyber-Attack against Electrical Grid
Under customary IHL, attacks may only be directed against military objectives and must not be directed against civilian objects. It appears that, in the 3 January 2026 operation, US Cybercommand shut down the electrical grid, a measure capable of having significant consequences for the civilian population. If the impact on the electrical grid was short lived, it would be unlikely to violate the principle of proportionality in attack.
VIOLATIONS AGAINST PERSONS IN THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY
President Maduro and his wife’s capture and detention raise concerns under the protection by IHL afforded to prisoners of war (POW) and a protected civilian, respectively, when detained in relation to an IAC.
Prisoners of War
President Maduro is entitled to POW status under Geneva Convention III in his capacity as commander in chief of the Venezuelan Armed Forces. POW status entails protection against violence, intimidation, insults, and public curiosity, and continued application of Convention safeguards from capture until final release and repatriation. Combatant’s privilege precludes domestic prosecution for lawful acts of violence committed against the enemy in an IAC. Geneva Convention III permits prosecution for pre-capture offences provided the prisoner retains Convention benefits even if convicted. As active hostilities were assessed as having ceased by mid-January 2026, Geneva Convention III requires release and repatriation of POWs without delay.
Arbitrary Deprivation of Liberty and Treatment of Detainees
IHL prohibits arbitrary deprivation of liberty and requires fundamental safeguards, including the ability to challenge detention through habeas corpus. Detained in the context of an IAC, Ms Cilia Flores qualifies as a protected person under Geneva Convention IV when in the hands of a party to the conflict of which she is not a national. As such, she is entitled in all circumstances to respect and must be humanely treated. She must be protected against violence or threats, and may not be punished for an offence she has not personally committed.