Armed conflicts in Iraq

Historical background

The territory that makes up contemporary Iraq was, at one time, part of the Ottoman Empire. After the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1920, the Kurdish people, who had lived in the region for centuries, had the opportunity to establish their own independent State for the first time in their history. The 1923 Treaty of Lausanne signed by Türkiye and some Allied Powers, however, denied the coming into existence of an independent Kurdish State and instead divided Kurdish territory up, with it now spanning Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye. Iraq, as it exists today, gained independence from Britain in 1932, but was only allowed to join the League of Nations subject to the condition that the rights of Kurds in Iraq were protected.

Iraq has engaged in various international armed conflicts over the years including with Iran, Kuwait, and the United States. Much of the instability in Iraq today stems from its various conflicts with the US.

An Autonomous Kurdistan

The Kurds were a nomadic people that were living in the region before the Arab conquest of Mesopotamia in the seventh century. Kurds have long struggled for an independent State and have been subject to persecution in Iraq, Türkiye, Syria, and Iran. In 1974, then-leader of Iraq, Saddam Hussein introduced the Law for Autonomy in the Area of Kurdistan and gave Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani two weeks to agree to it. Barzani refused on the basis that the law gave more control to Baghdad and covered significantly less territory than envisaged by earlier promises. Kurdistan, as it autonomously exists today in Iraq, gained de facto autonomy after the 1991 Gulf War. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – an alliance of Kurdish political parties – held an election May 1992 to inject a formal governmental structure into the autonomous region. It was eventually in 2005, with the adoption of the new Iraqi Constitution, that the full autonomy of Kurdistan was formally recognized.

The situation between Türkiye and the Kurds in Iraq

Iraq has seen long-standing tensions between Türkiye and the Kurds. Following a 1980 coup in Türkiye, tensions between the Turkish government and the Kurdish population in Türkiye escalated, culminating in the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s first armed attacks in 1984. This initiated a non-international armed conflict between Türkiye and the PKK on Turkish territory that, albeit with some interruptions, endured until April 2025.

A Turkish presence in northern Iraq

Although Türkiye has had some kind of presence in northern Iraq since Saddam Hussein gave it permission to advance five kilometres into Iraqi territory in 1984, Ankara has reportedly been establishing outposts in northern Iraq since 2018. In January 2023, Reuters reported that there were about eighty-seven Turkish bases in northern Iraq, although numbers floated have ranged from ‘more than a hundred’ to thirty-seven. The BBC reported that Ankara now controls more than 2,000 square kilometres of land in northern Iraq and that it had built over 600 kilometres of roads to connect its bases and outposts. As a justification for its presence, Türkiye stated that the bases were in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter and that its ‘fight against terrorism’, referring to the PKK, ‘is carried out in coordination and close cooperation’ with Iraq. Ankara has, however, not approached Baghdad for consent to construct the bases and Iraqi authorities have ‘complained about Ankara’s incursions’.

The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Islamic State) in Iraq

By 2014, Iraq was engaged in a non-international armed conflict (NIAC) with Islamic State. Following the fall of Mosul in June 2014, the Iraqi government requested international assistance, leading to the formation of an international Combined Joint Task Force as part of “Operation Inherent Resolve” (CJTF-OIR) and to the provision of support by Kurdish Peshmerga. The campaign against the Islamic State intensified until late 2017, when the Islamic State lost key strongholds and Iraq declared the border secured and the group defeated. States involved in CJTF-OIR ended combat missions but continued to support Iraq, including through transport, refuelling, surveillance, advising and training. Shia militias organized in Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) also fought Islamic State; though affiliated with the Iraqi State since 2016, many of their factions operated largely outside government control.

Key developments (2023-2026)

1. Oil Relations Between Baghdad and Erbil

Almost one third of all the oil in Iraq is located in the Kurdistan region. In the absence of legislation setting out how Iraq and Kurdistan are to share profits from oil and gas exports, Kurdistan started exporting oil on its own. For years, Baghdad and Erbil have failed to come to an agreement on revenue-sharing from oil. In the latter half of 2025, relations improved and the KRG, the Iraqi oil ministry, and oil companies operating in Kurdistan, agreed to resume exports from Kurdistan through Türkiye after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus.

2. Provincial, Regional, and Parliamentary Elections

A series of elections have been held in Iraq and Kurdistan in recent years. In the December 2023, provincial elections, the Shia Coalition Framework, a ‘loose coalition’ of Shia Muslim groups won the most seats. Kurdistan’s parliamentary elections were held in October 2024 with the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan taking the top two spots respectively. On 11 November 2025, Iraq held parliamentary elections. No party won an outright majority – the Reconstruction and Development party won the most seats, the State of Law party was second, and the League of the Righteous party was third. A new Prime Minister, businessman Ali al-Zaidi, was only sworn in in Mya 2026.

3. Improved Relations with Türkiye

Turkish President Recep Erdoğan visited Iraq for the first time in thirteen years in April 2024. More meetings between the two States have taken place since then, indicating improved relations between the States after decades of disputes over security.

4. United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq Comes to an End

The UN Security Council established UNAMI in 2003 to help Iraq deal with its years of internal conflict, occupation, and Islamic State. In July 2024, the Security Council voted to end the mission with it officially coming to an end in December 2025.

5. ‘Transition Plan’ for the CJTF-OIR and Participating States

In September 2024, the US and Iraq decided on a ‘two-phase transition plan for CJTF-OIR operations in Iraq’ to end. The first phase of plan was to start at the end of September 2024 and concerned the complete withdrawal of CJTF-OIR forces from certain parts of Iraq. This was to be completed by the end of September 2025. This phase was extended for one year. The second phase concerns an agreement that the CJTF-OIR will still be able to operate out of Erbil against IS in Syria.

6. Islamic State Detainees Moved into Iraq from Syria

In January and February 2026, the US transferred more than 5,000 IS detainees from prisons and camps in Syria to various facilities in Iraq.

7. PKK Banned and Subsequently Disarms and Dissolves

In March 2024, the Iraqi government designated the PKK as a ‘banned’ organization. In February 2025, imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called on the PKK to lay down arms, dissolve, and end its conflict with Türkiye. In May 2025, the group announced that it would disband and that ‘all activities’ carried out under the group’s name have come to an end. The repatriation of PKK members and civilians to Türkiye as well as the full and final disarmament of the PKK is expected to be completed by the end of November 2026.

8. Disarmament of Some Iranian-backed Militias in Iraq

In April 2025, several Iranian-backed militias were prepared to disarm in order to avoid a conflict with the United States. In June 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi gave all Iranian-backed militias and other militias operating outside of Iraqi State control until 30 September 2026 to surrender their weapons. Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, Muqtada al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam has also agreed to disarm by the deadline.

9. Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) Strikes on Jordan

In January 2024, the IRI launched an attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US service members and injuring forty others. In early March 2026, the Saraya Awliya al-Dam, a member of the IRI, launched an attack on US positions on Jordanian territory with more attacks carried out throughout March 2026.

10. Strikes on United Arab Emirates Nuclear Plant

On 17 May 2026, the UAE intercepted drones targeting its nuclear plant. The attack was unclaimed, but UAE officials blamed it on Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq.

11. A Growing Houthi Presence in Iraq

Although Yemen’s Houthis (also called Ansar Allah) have had a presence in Iraq since at least 2011, in September 2024 it was reported that the groups opened a political office in Baghdad. The Houthis also reportedly have ‘technical adviser teams’ in Iraq. The Houthis have operated alongside Iraqi militias within Iraq before and in July 2026, Saudi Arabian intelligence suggested that the Houthis were involved in an attack on Saudi Arabia that was launched from Iraqi territory allegedly by Iranian-backed militias.